Author: Greta Bordin – 07/12/2021
THE FUTURE OF ASEAN-RUSSIA RELATIONS
Renovated commitment will not traduce in priority enhancement
Greta Bordin – Ca’ Foscari University – Vision & Global Trends
During the 4th ASEAN-Russia Summit[1] held via videoconference on the 28th of October 2021, the commitment and the adoption of a new Comprehensive Plan of Action (CPA) aimed at further solidifying relations between the Russian Federation and the Southeast Asian Nations have been reaffirmed. (SUMMIT ASEAN – RUSSIA 2021a)
Yet, despite Vladimir Putin’s assertion of relations-deepening desire, it is highly doubtful that the Southeast Asian region will become a significant Russian area of interest in the Asia-Pacific in the short-medium term.
The Russian Federation’s interest in Southeast Asia concretely started to manifest itself with the 1st ASEAN-Russia Summit in the 2000s[2], concomitantly to the Color Revolutions and the emergence of anti-Western rhetoric among the Russian elite. The ensuing 2008 Georgian War, 2010 Arab Spring, 2011-2012 domestic democratic protests during the Parliamentary and Presidential elections, and 2013 Ukraine Crisis and the Crimean Peninsula incorporation with the subsequent Western financial and economic sanctions imposition further fortified the already existing sentiment. As a result, 2014 marked a turning point in the Russian foreign policy agenda, with an evident strategic partnership reorientation towards Asia. The 2016 Commemorative ASEAN-Russia Summit held in Sochi provided confirmation of the pivot-shifting, advocating what would have been accomplished in Singapore in 2018: the transition from an ASEAN-Russia “Dialogue Partnership” towards a “Strategic Partnership for Mutual Benefit.” (SUMMIT ASEAN – RUSSIA 2021b)
[1] During the 4th ASEAN-Russia Summit, the 30th Anniversary of ASEAN-Russia Relations was commemorated through, a partnership that has been reconfirmed on the basis of guiding principles enshrined in the ASEAN Charter, the UN Charter the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC), the EAS Declaration on the Principles for Mutually Beneficial Relations (Bali Principles) and universally recognised principles of international law. (ASEAN-Russia Summit 2021)
[2] ASEAN-Russia dialogue partnership emerged in the 1970s but formally launched in 1991 when Russian representatives paid a visit to the Malaysian Government during an ASEAN Ministerial Meeting. The first ASEAN-Russia Summit took place in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on the 13th of December 2005. For an in-depth analysis, see “ИСТОРИЯ ДИАЛОГОВОГО ПАРТНЁРСТВА РОССИИ И АСЕАН” Суммит россия – асеан. Available from: http://russia-asean20.ru/russia_asean/20160309/7163.html
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Other articles by Greta Bordin published in Vision & Global Trends. International Institute for Global Analyses’ website: