Europe’s New Geostrategic Pivots - Vision and Global Trends

Author: Emanuel Pietrobon – 20/03/2021

The power of demography

Europe’s ethnic landscape is undergoing an epoch-making change as a result of the interconnection of a number of factors, most notably migratory phenomena, aging processes and the constant disparity among the birth rates of different ethnic groups co-living in the same territory.

Demography is often overlooked and not fully understood in international relations but future trends cannot be forecasted adequately without taking into account its world-overturning power. Indeed, demography is the foundational pillar of nations and civilizations: they cannot hope to resist the force of history – or the enemy’s army – if their baby cots are empty. Positive demography is also tied to positive economic growth – because automation will prove helpful up to a certain point – but also to welfare sustainability. In short, a nation’s fertility rate must be high enough to make the generation replacement possible (2,1 children per woman).

Last but not least, history teaches and shows us that demography can be weaponised to the detriment of low fertility-stricken countries. This is no political fiction: let’s only bear in mind the forgotten case of the Texas revolution. The former Mexican province was conquered by means of demography, namely through a silent ethnic colonization which over the years would lead Americans to overcome Mexicans.

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The author: Emanuel Pietrobon, University of Turin (Italy)

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