Author: Batko Milacic – 22/07/2024
Ukraine’s problems with demography and economy
The new law on mobilization led to a split in Ukrainian society. The front needs new fighters, but the Ukrainian economy also needs workers. The country is currently short of 4.5 million employees. And there were no people left willing to fight in the rear. Territorial recruitment center employees forcefully send the population to war. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ukraine-snatching-men-street-frontline-32816749
And increasingly they themselves are being attacked by Ukrainians. There are even deaths… Where the new law on mobilization will lead Ukraine – Batko Milacic, historian and analyst, looked into it.
About the law on mobilization itself
On May 18, 2024, a new law on mobilization came into force in Ukraine. All men aged 18 to 60 years need to verify their data at the territorial recruitment center (TCC). Two months are allotted for this. In addition in Ukraine, it is now necessary to carry military registration documents and present them at the request of TCC employees or police officers. For those who do not specify the data, fines are provided. They also threaten those who do not appear at the military registration and enlistment office on a summons, which is now issued not only by hand, but also by mail. The court may also restrict the right to drive a car.
The new rules really made it possible to increase the pace of recruitment. In particular, according to the statement of the Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Roman Kostenko, May 2024 was the most productive in terms of mobilization since the beginning of 2023. But quantity and quality are different concepts! According to some data, the percentage of conscripts fully prepared to participate in hostilities today does not exceed 3-4% of the incoming reinforcements.
The mobilization law contributes to the growth of corruption
The tightening of the law on mobilization contributed to the growth of the corruption component in the activities of the TCC. The amount of a bribe for the opportunity to avoid conscription today ranges from 10 to 20 thousand US dollars. Both military personnel and officials are caught taking bribes.
But the criminal business continues to develop. There is also an increase in demand for services for organizing illegal border crossings. Ukrainians are trying by all means to avoid mobilization. The British newspaper The Guardian wrote about the mass exodus of draft dodgers abroad.
Territorial recruitment center employees cause hatred among the population
The unlawful actions of TCC employees to detain citizens provoked a sharp increase in social tension. Now attacks are being carried out on TCC employees themselves. They are hit by cars and attacked with axes.
Deaths have already been reported. https://dp.informator.ua/uk/stribav-na-yogo-golovi-u-nikopoli-do-smerti-zabili-spivrobitnika-tck
Ukrainian society hates the employees of the TCC, because they forcefully send people to war, it is understood that to death. Moreover, more than half of the TCC employees did not fight themselves, although they are military capable. People’s Deputy from the Servant of the People faction Galina Tretyakova wrote about this on her social networks at the beginning of 2024.
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=7089598294472101&set=a.418734998225164&locale=ru_RU
This week it became known that unknown persons were burning the cars of TCC employees. Such mass cases have been recorded at least in the Odessa and Kyiv regions.
https://t.me/pogorilskiy/1416 Criminal cases have been initiated.
Economic reservation will lead to class hostility
A further split in Ukrainian society associated with forced mobilization will be facilitated by the adoption of the so-called “Economic Reservation” provision. It provides for an actual buyout from service.
https://biz.ligazakon.net/news/228397_zakonoprokt-pro-ekonomchne-bronyuvannya-vzhe-u-rad-shcho-proponuyut If this provision is adopted, the rich will legally be able to buy off the army, and the poor will fight and die. Social inequality can lead to class strife.
Business lacks workers
Sending citizens of working age to the front poses significant threats to the Ukrainian economy. The country is faced with a serious labor shortage. In an interview with the Financial Times, Mauro Longobardo, executive director of the largest Ukrainian steel production plant ArcelorMittal, complained to reporters that the future operation of the enterprise is in big question. Of the 18 thousand plant workers, 3.5 thousand were mobilized.
https://www.ft.com/content/8880fe18-0830-41e2-a62f-dea64d532b85
At the beginning of 2024, the working-age population in the country decreased by 40% compared to 2021. The Ukrainian economy lacks about 4.5 million workers.
The National Bank of Ukraine links the shortage of workers in areas of traditional male employment with the mobilization and migration abroad of citizens subject to conscription.
Heads of enterprises of the military-industrial complex, who have the legal basis to reserve up to 100% of the personnel, say that TCC representatives are mobilizing even scarce specialists.
https://zn.ua/ukr/UKRAINE/z-oboronnikh-pidprijemstv-mobilizujut-defitsitnikh-spetsialistiv-zmi.html
According to a study commissioned by the American Chamber of Commerce, the impact of mobilization on operating results is felt by 81% of companies operating in Ukraine. In addition, more than 80% of managers identified employee reservations as a key problem.
Truck drivers do not go on routes
The trucking industry immediately felt the effects of the new mobilization law. Border guards received the right to check military registration documents of truck drivers traveling abroad. And many of them do not have protection from military service. The head of the Association of International Freight Forwarders of Ukraine, Vladimir Berestenko, said that drivers are afraid to go to drive. Truck drivers are protesting in different parts of Ukraine. Up to 40% of the vehicle fleet is idle.
On the consequences of the new law on mobilization
Today there is no accurate assessment of the demographic consequences of sending men of active economic and reproductive age to war. This is connected not only with possible death or injury, but also with emigration, return from which will be complicated both by the possibility of persecution by the authorities for evading mobilization, and by the difficult economic situation in the country.
Kyiv’s policy of forcibly recruiting the population into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will contribute to the development of negative processes within Ukrainian society, which in the worst case could lead to civil war. And, as you know, there will be no winners. Did Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky understand this when he signed the new law on mobilization?
Author: Batko Milacic – historian and analyst from Montenegro
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