Author: Ecaterina Cojuhari – 17/07/2024
Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia: the new big game in the Middle East
Future scenarios and ways to peace
Why is the risk of a big explosion in the Middle East between Iran and Israel so high? In the polarized world there is one real consensus in the international community today – which one? How can the Israeli-Palestinian conflict come to a peace solution and what are the roles of Iran and Saudi Arabia today? The open discussion at the Apéro Géopolitique was hot thanks to the experts: Jean-Daniel Ruch – ex-Special Representative of Switzerland in the Middle East, Ambassador in Serbia, Israel and Turkey and Hicheme Lehmici – geopolitical expert, specialized in the Middle East. It was organized in partnership with the SWISS UMEF University of Applied Science Institute on June 27 in Geneva at Château d‘Aire.
Apéro Géopolitique – is a discussion platform aimed at raising actual and important topics and deepening the understanding of ongoing geopolitical processes, as well as forecasting possible scenarios and searching for peace solutions. Opened by the head of the Swiss UMEF – Professor Djawed Sangdel, the discussion was moderated by journalist Ecaterina Cojuhari, and started with the launch of Jean-Daniel Ruch’s book “Crimes, Hate, Tremors”. Published in May 2024, the book became a bestseller in both the French and German parts of Switzerland, which is unique. The book reveals the true mechanisms of big politics through the prism of the author’s 30 years of diplomatic experience.
Jean-Daniel Ruch (JDR): -The reason I wrote this book? Because I had an influx of blood and anger after February 24, 2022. It was for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and because we did not make enough efforts to prevent it from happening. In my experience in diplomacy, I’m pretty sure that if there had been the political will on both sides – this war could have been prevented. I have been enough in conflict situations, including in Gaza, the Balkans, Syria, and Lebanon, to know that any war involves unbearable suffering for the population and the longer it lasts the harder it is for recovering people, country, and relations between fighting parties. Then I had a second influx of blood and anger after my conversations with the Turkish Foreign Ministry when they were playing the mediator. I was told that the negotiations on Ukraine were promising and that the possibility of a ceasefire was close. Then the talks collapsed. It is largely researched, and what I heard from mediators, some powers with a more global agenda believed it was too early to end this war… I was thinking about these poor kids, receiving shells on their heads. Sometimes the best way to exercise your anger – is to put it on a piece of paper. Perhaps this book will give some people keys to understand deeper the root causes of the current conflicts.
Israel and Palestine
– Moving to the topic of this evening: Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia: the new big game in the Middle East, why is it new, if the conflicts in the Middle East are so complex and long-term? The Middle East is experiencing a historical transformation. A new balance of power is emerging in the Middle East and the map of alliances is being redrawn. Given the catastrophe in Gaza, perhaps now is the “window of opportunity” to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Jean-Daniel, you have played an important and active role in promoting the Geneva Initiative, about which you wrote in your book as well. I remind the audience that you were the Special representative of Switzerland in the Middle East, then the Swiss ambassador to Israel, you led the negotiations with Hamas leaders, as it was your Swiss mediation mandate. Could you briefly talk about the Israeli-Palestinian settlement, what stage of negotiations you have reached, and to what extent it is possible to apply the Geneva Initiative in the context of Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip?
JDR: Actually, the Geneva Initiative is the two-state solution in practice. For a long time nobody spoke about it, many people think even today that it is dead. However after October 7 suddenly the two-state solution came back onto the table. Why? Because it has shown that the policy of managing the conflict that has been implemented by the Israeli government for the past about 15 years, has led to the disaster. If there is one real consensus in the international community today – it is the two-state solution. We have heard the official position of the United States, China, Russia, and all European countries and institutions. They all say the only possibility is to have a two-state solution.
Back 20 years ago, the idea of a two-state solution was seen as promising and almost came to fruition. We worked out this arrangement which became known as a Geneva initiative because what was presented here in Geneva in 2003 as a short concept. Then we worked on all the details and the result was those 500 pages which are now becoming pretty interesting again. People in Palestine and Israel continue working on that. They were approached by big powers, including the USA, to see whether it was still possible. I wrote a study on the feasibility of the two-state solution which was published in academic reviews two months ago. I concluded that technically it’s feasible, but it would require an immense political investment not only from Palestine and Israel sides, but other countries too. And I’m not sure that the political will is there to proceed with such an investment.
-About the political will… I received a message from David Harel, current President of the Academy of Sciences and Humanity of Israel, with a link to an article in the New York Times published recently, where he, the former head of Massad, the former Prime Minister of Israel and many other influential public figures are very worried about Israel. I quote: “Mr. Netanyahu’s appearance in Washington will not represent the State of Israel and its citizens, and it will reward his scandalous and destructive conduct toward our country… we may lose the country we love”. What is the internal situation in Israel and what is Netanyahu’s strategy in Gaza?
Hicheme Lehmici (HL): Israeli Prime Minister – Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to avoid justice and prison and is in a situation of escalation. Behind him, there is a political majority that recognizes itself in a discourse that is not the discourse of the Israeli army. Behind him is a political majority that recognizes itself in a messianic discourse with the idea that by instigating the events that are taking place, Israel will gain access to a new era of dominance in the region. Behind it is a project of Greater Israel. So a new front could be opened, involving the Israeli army in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah, and possibly the Syrian army. As it has been observed for several weeks an influx of Iraqi fighters from pro-Iranian militias are preparing to fight the Israeli army. Today we are in a situation where there is a risk of extremely dangerous escalation.
Regarding the question of new regional balances… The world has changed in the sense that today almost the entire planet agrees with the idea of creating a Palestinian state. We can take the latest statements from Chinese diplomacy. China called for the creation of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, adopting what was known as the Security Council Resolution, essentially the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem. This point of view is very important because even if China is not yet a leading strategic power militarily or in terms of influence, but economically it is the leading economic power in the world. China has effectively imposed a kind of blockade or embargo against Israel. From an administrative point of view, Chinese companies are no longer allowed to trade with Israel. This is very harmful to the Israeli economy. Currently, the Israeli economy is experiencing a very serious decline of -10% to 20%. This decline will be even greater if Israel opens a new front in the north towards Lebanon and Hezbollah. Several hundred thousand Israelis will be mobilized into the conflict, which means there will be far fewer specialists capable of keeping the Israeli economy running.
Today we are also in a situation where Iran, which was a fairly distant player, has become a central player in the Middle East. Today the risk of a major explosion is at stake in the Middle East between Israel and Iran.
Iranian influence
–What is the role of Iran today?
JDR: There is a trend, especially in the West, but not only. It’s a trend among many religions by “reading” the world in terms of good versus evil. Regan was talking about the Empire of evil which was the Soviet Union. George W. Bush was talking about the axis of evil in the Middle East and the result of this way of “reading” the world has been one disaster after another: the Vietnam disaster, the Iraqi disaster, the Afghani disaster, the Yemen disaster, the Libyan disaster… So many disasters! I believe, that if you want to understand what is happening today, it is interesting to go back to Greek mythology. There is a goddess Hybris who personifies arrogance, and pride. She was a daughter of chaos and the wife of Polemos, the personification of war. So arrogance and war are going together. I think that this explains the history of the past 50 years and how the West overplayed its cards, underestimated its enemies, and overestimated its forces. Actually, they just opened the door to Iranian influence in the Middle East. I guess they did not do this willingly. But the reality is that Iran never was in such a position of force. I was speaking to Israeli friends who were involved in the two-state solution – the Geneva Initiative a few days ago. He said two governments in the world are against the two-state solution – Iran and Israel.
-I would like to come to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. How to bring the Americans back into this joint plan for resolving the Iran nuclear program, that may guarantee security in the region?
JDR: If Trump is coming back to power, this seems to me very challenging. The question is – whether Iran is interested in binding itself again in an agreement where you have zero guarantees that the next American government will implement the agreement. So, if it happens, I think that for the West the price will be higher than last time.
Saudi Arabia ambitions
-Hicheme, tell us, please, about Saudi Arabia’s strategy in the Middle East and globally.
HL: Today, on a global scale, there is a confrontation of narratives between the opinions of countries governments, especially the global South, which have positions and understandings of the Gaza and Ukraine conflicts that are very different from the Western ones. This point is important because today in the divorce that has formed between the West and the rest of the world, the Ukrainian question was almost a fundamental element, but the Palestinian question today risks accelerating this divorce almost completely. Do you remember what Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in 2016? In 2030, the Middle East will become today’s Europe, and today’s Europe will become tomorrow’s Middle East. He emphasized the fact that he has made it his mission to ensure that Saudi Arabia can develop its economy very strongly and that the entire region: Egypt, Iraq, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and other countries, the Gulf region of the Middle East is going to be a model area, an area of prosperity. Some people laughed at it a little, saying that MBS was perhaps too ambitious and did not seem to understand what was happening in his country. We are in 2024, we see major projects that have been put forward in Saudi Arabia. Politics, strategy, the Saudi vision is a vision of the future, as well as some neighboring states such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and others are already on duty.
The relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia will determine where the center of the world will be if they continue the rapprochement. It has been happening since last year thanks to Chinese diplomacy between Iran and Saudi Arabia. I believe that the neuralgic zone, the central heart of the world, will be located in this region. Today Iran is a country that is looking for its place in the international “concert”, like Japan in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, a country that is in the process of ascending to power. Iran is certainly a scientific power. It is one of the oldest civilizations in the world with very ancient diplomatic traditions…
–How would you characterize relations between Saudi Arabia and the USA and what is happening with the petrodollar agreement between these two countries?
HL: Regarding the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States, we are experiencing a historical revolution, a major transformation in geo-economics and international relations. Starting from the end of World War II with a kind of grand alliance between Saudi Arabia and the USA with the idea that Saudi Arabia would become the main supplier of oil to the United States with a 50-year agreement. This was the famous Quincy Pact. This alliance lasted a very long time and was strengthened in the 1970s when the United States stopped converting the dollar into gold. In 1974 a petrodollar system in which the United States, through the mediation of H. Kissinger, managed to ensure that by agreeing to increase the price of oil, oil had to be issued in dollars and sold in dollars. This is what has allowed the dollar to maintain its almighty dominance over the world economy. But for several years we have been witnessing a phenomenon, led in particular by Saudi Arabia, which is the phenomenon of de-dollarization – a divorce between Saudi Arabia and the United States, without going into detail.
Saudi Arabia signed a contract to build two nuclear reactors with the Chinese, and this is a very important development. Saudi Arabia purchased Russian strategic weapons for the first time – the Triumph S400 system. When you start trading arms and nuclear power plants, it means that you are establishing a strategic partnership that will last for decades. Saudi Arabia got on board and began trading local currencies with India, China, Russia, and the Emirates. This is a big revolution because we are moving away from the petrodollar system. Since at least last year, Saudi Arabia has been selling some of its oil in Chinese yuan, and this is something completely new. It also sells it to India in rupees, and for several months now Saudi Arabia has officially stated that Saudi oil will no longer be officially supplied in dollars as it was before. That is, selling in other currencies is no longer the exception, but is becoming the rule, and this is a big economic revolution.
Paths to peace
–What do you think about possible Saudi Arabia mediation in the war in Ukraine?
HL: In my opinion, if a peace agreement on Ukraine is reached, this peace agreement will be controlled by China, but will be signed either in Saudi Arabia or Turkey. In any case, I am convinced that this signing, if it happens and if there is no major conflict in the region, will take place in the Middle East and that it will take the form of a peace agreement. It could be in the spirit of the Astana agreements, for example. It was sort of the beginning of a peace agreement for Syria, which marked a revolution because the Astana agreements were the signing of three countries: Turkey, Iran, and Russia, an agreement that, in essence, marked the beginning of a peaceful solution in Syria.
–Jean-Daniel, what role can international organizations, countries, and peace initiatives play in mitigating tensions and fostering cooperation in the Middle East? Your vision of peace in this region, especially for Gaza?
JDR: I don’t see any international organization today that can play a decisive or even influential role in the Middle East. We know that the Security Council, which is the body where these kinds of things should be discussed, has been dysfunctional for so many years now, that I don’t see much of what they could do. One of the big challenges where there is no solution today – is the day after in Gaza. Maybe this is one of the most acute questions and there the United Nations Relief and Works Agencyfor Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) can play a crucial role. In particular, because they are the ones who are providing most of the humanitarian assistance. Plus the UNRWA is almost a state-like institution, they have many attributes of the kind of public services and utilities that states usually provide. I would say if I see a role for an international organization in the Middle East today, the UNRWA can play not only a humanitarian role but also some governance role in Gaza. We know that there is a Biden peace plan for Gaza, but I’m not very optimistic about it for the near future. At the same time, I believe that there are already people in the offices here and in New York – who are thinking about it and after-war reconstruction.
Jean-Daniel Ruch has served Switzerland as Ambassador in Serbia, Israel, and most recently Türkiye, being also a Swiss Special representative in the Middle East. He also worked for the OSCE and for the United National International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. His book “Crimes, Hate and Tremors “, published in May 2024, is a bestseller in both the French and German parts of Switzerland, being on the top list of bestsellers of Payot bookstores.
Hicheme Lehmici – a geopolitical analyst, specializing in the Middle East. He is a secretary of the Geneva International Institute for Peace Research and a lecturer at the Swiss UMEF. Hicheme Lehmici is a regular columnist for many international media. He worked for several years as a political advisor to French parliamentarians and heads of former ministers.