Author: Ecaterina Cojuhari – 12/04/2025
Apéro Géopolitique: Central Asia – the “heart” of the new world?
Long considered a periphery of the world, Central Asia is now emerging as an important geopolitical and strategic hub. Crossed by the Silk Road since ancient times, the region is regaining its centrality thanks to China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative (BRI) and the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TCTC), changing the shape of trade between China, Europe and the Middle East. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are rich in hydrocarbons, uranium, gold and rare earth metals, and are attracting the attention of major powers. Will Central Asia, long considered a secondary geopolitical space, become a strategic epicentre again?
Experts Murat Seitnepesov – President of the Greater Caspian Region Association (organizers of “Caspian Week Forum” in Davos, Beijing, Dubai and Baku), CEO of Integral Group and Hicheme Lehmici – geopolitical expert, lecturer at the SWISS UMEF University, deeply explored this topic at the conference of the independent discussion platform Apéro Géopolitique. It was organized jointly with the Swiss UMEF University of Applied Sciences Institute and took place on March 28 at the Chateau d’Air in Geneva.
The colossal potential of Central Asian countries
-Could you briefly describe the Central Asian region and characterize each of the 5 countries?
Murat Seitnepesov: I am glad to see that there is so much interest in Central Asia. I come from Turkmenistan – a Central Asian country, along with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. This region is part of the Greater Caspian Region, which includes 18 countries. Central Asia covers 4 million square kilometres of territory, which is about 100 times larger than Switzerland. But it has about 80 million people with a nominal GDP of 440 billion dollars. However, the parity GDP is 1.1 trillion dollars, a substantial amount.
So, what is Central Asia rich in? First of all, natural resources, primarily oil and gas. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are leaders in this area. Azerbaijan follows them. I made some calculations of the potential value of these reserves. In Turkmenistan, the value of oil and gas reserves is 2.8 trillion dollars. In Kazakhstan – 2 trillion dollars. In Uzbekistan – 200 billion dollars. But that’s not all. For critical minerals, the obvious leader in the region is Kazakhstan – 375 billion dollars. Then Uzbekistan – 213 billion dollars, Tajikistan – more than 100 billion dollars and Kyrgyzstan – 71 billion dollars. Turkmenistan, unfortunately, does not have a lot of critical important minerals. But overall, we are talking about almost 800 billion dollars of real reserves of critical important minerals in Central Asia. There is really a lot of potential here. Of course, there are also significant oil and gas reserves in other parts of the world. For example, the Middle East, and Latin America. But for the production of critical important minerals, the Central Asian region will be very important to the world in the very near future.
Now, more about each country. Kazakhstan is the largest country in Central Asia with vast natural resources (oil, gas and critical minerals). It has a relatively diversified economy and leads in regional trade and energy exports, often leading integration efforts such as the EAEU.
Uzbekistan is the new “star” of the region. It is Central Asia’s most populous country with a diversified economy in agriculture and industry. It is a transit zone and a growing industrial centre. Large-scale economic reforms have been underway for the past 7 years. The country is open for international business. Uzbekistan has significant reserves of critical important minerals.
Turkmenistan – has the largest natural gas reserves (4th largest in the world) and the country adheres to the policy of neutrality. Export of natural gas goes mainly to China. It has a great potential for production of nitrogen fertilizers from natural gas.
Kyrgyzstan is the “Switzerland” of Central Asia with stunning natural beauty and huge potential for tourism. The country has a smaller economy based on agriculture and mining, with relative political openness. It acts as a geographical bridge between Central Asia and the East. The last 3 years are positive with economic reforms and opening the economy to international business. The country has a significant reserve of critical important minerals.
Tajikistan is the greenest country in the region with 99% of its energy generated through hydropower. They have mountains and with significant hydro potential, it manages vital water resources. However, the country is heavily dependent on remittances. Tajikistan has a large mining potential and significant reserves of critical important minerals.
Overall, each country in the region is unique. The investment climate there is very attractive.
“Keys” to owning the world?
– Tell us, please, about the configuration of alliances in this region: SCO, Eurasian Union, CSTO and others. How does it all work?
Hicheme Lehmici: Central Asia is now part of a complex set of regional organizations reflecting geopolitical rivalry and convergence in the region.
– The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) brings together China, Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan and the four Central Asian countries (excluding Turkmenistan). It epitomizes Eurasian security cooperation aimed at combating terrorism, separatism, and extremism.
– The Russia-dominated Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) brings together Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Belarus and aims to achieve regional economic integration through the free movement of goods, services, capital, and labour. For example, it allows Kyrgyz citizens to legally work in Russia without a visa.
– The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is a Moscow-led military alliance that includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia and Belarus. It is based on the principle of collective defense. For example, in January 2022, the CSTO intervened in Kazakhstan at the request of President Tokayev to restore order amid unrest and the risk of destabilization. This was the organization’s first joint military intervention since its inception.
Other initiatives, such as the Organization of Turkic States, which promotes cultural, linguistic and economic cooperation between the Turkic-speaking countries: Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, or the New Silk Road, testify to the dense network of cooperation in the region.
This concentration of alliances can be explained by Central Asia’s exceptional strategic position in the major geopolitical theories that have shaped international politics for over a century. As early as 1904, Halford John Mackinder, in his book “The Geographical Pivot of History”, argued that Eurasia is the centre of world power and Central Asia is its “geographical pivot” or “Heartland”. His famous phrase summarizes this vision: “…Whoever controls Heartland controls world-island; whoever controls world-island controls the whole world.” For Mackinder, control of continental lands-particularly through the development of railroads-was becoming more strategically important than maritime dominance.
This vision was in contrast to the views of Alfred Thayer Mahan, an American naval strategist who, in the second half of the nineteenth century, emphasized the central role of sea powers or thalassocracies. For Mahan, mastery of the seas was the key to world power, as demonstrated by the British Empire and the United States. This confrontation between continental powers (Heartland) and maritime powers (Rimland or oceans) structures much of modern strategic history. Control of landlocked Central Asia in the heartland of the continent thus became a crucial issue in countering the influence of the Thalassocracies. In the 1940s, Nicholas Spykman developed the theory of the Rimland, or marginal crescent: he believed that control of Eurasia depended on dominance over the coastal areas surrounding the Heartland. As he put it: “Whoever controls Rimland controls Eurasia, whoever controls Eurasia controls the destinies of the world.” His vision had a lasting impact on American deterrence strategy during the Cold War. Finally, Z. Brzezinski, in “The Grand Chessboard” (1997), updates these approaches to take into account the post-Soviet era. He calls Central Asia the “Eurasian Balkans,” emphasizing that this region, rich in energy resources and ethnically and religiously heterogeneous, is desirable to all powers. He sees it as a crucial strategic zone to prevent any continental consolidation that could rival American power.
The war in Afghanistan, the rise of China, Russia’s desire for geopolitical repositioning, and the diplomatic activity of Turkey and Iran show how these theories still have practical resonance today. It is important to note that after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the independence of the Central Asian states, they began to pursue their own foreign policy, which was theorized, in particular, by Kazakhstan. It can be called a multi-vector policy or diplomacy. That is, the Central Asian states are trying to find the right balance in their relations with both Russia and China and other major powers. In other words, the logic of the foreign policy of these countries has changed, it has become a true openness to the world. This is almost a paradox, because we are dealing with countries that, from a certain point of view, are the most isolated in the world, in the sense that they are farthest from the sea.
In summary, I would like to emphasize that Central Asia is once again becoming a global strategic centre, a field of rivalry, a crucial transit zone and a mirror of tensions between world powers. It represents a gradual shift of the centre of gravity deep into the Eurasian continent.
Central Asia can be an island of peace and stability
-Do you agree that the Central Asian region holds the keys to understanding the future geopolitical dynamics between the major powers? How do you think Central Asian countries can keep the balance between major powers while preserving their sovereignty?
Murat Seitnepesov: This is a complex and interesting question, but let’s remember a little bit of history. For the last 2500 years Central Asia has been in the epicenter of geopolitical processes. In the 13th century, the Khwarazmian Empire (located on the territory of modern Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) provoked Genghis Khan’s invasion to the west and basically created the Mongol Empire from China to Eastern Europe. In the 19th century, the British and Russian empires competed for influence in Central Asia and Afghanistan for several decades. It was the biggest geopolitical game at the time, the so-called Big Game.
Today, it is one of the few regions that can bring the greatest growth potential in the world because of oil and gas reserves, minerals and critical important minerals. I think the pioneer was China with its “One Belt, One Road” initiative announced during Chairman Xi Jinping’s speech in Astana, Kazakhstan, in 2013. The “One Belt, One Road” initiative was started there. Before and during that, there were some attempts by the European Union.
Now, when we talk about the leading powers in Central Asia, we mean the United States, Russia, China, potentially India, and a little bit of the EU. The superpowers have huge interests in this region: economic, geopolitical, military, etc. I think the US will be there very soon for critical minerals. China is already there, it has already implemented various infrastructure projects, exploration and production projects for metals, oil and gas, and so on.
How could the Central Asian countries benefit from this without taking too much risk? If you get too close to one of the superpowers, it will inevitably provoke a reaction from the others. That is why the only way for Central Asian countries is a multi-vector foreign policy or, even better, neutrality. And here we have an excellent example – in 1995 Turkmenistan received official neutral status from the United Nations. Since then, the life of Turkmenistan’s diplomats has become much easier, because they do not have to respond to attempts to accuse them of being close to one of the superpowers. They could always say that we are a neutral country, we are friends with everybody. I think this strategy could be adopted by other countries. And that would be very good for the region. Central Asia can be an island of peace and stability. We know that the conflict continues between Russia and Ukraine. We hope it will be resolved very soon. We know that there has been instability between India and Pakistan for many decades, that there is a problem in the Middle East. So, this strategy can bring a really unique opportunity for the Central Asian countries.
Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor
– Do you think the Silk Road Initiative and the Trans-Caspian Transit Corridor (TCTC) can compete with other major trade routes such as the Suez Canal?
Hicheme Lehmici: With China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative and its own regional dynamics, Central Asia is positioning itself as a strategic logistics and energy hub. The New Silk Road is a kind of big transcontinental project that touches all continents, even South America. It’s really a very global vision. We are in the Chinese strategic and very long-term vision, and Central Asia is at the center of the game. In the sense that infrastructure corridors are being developed, particularly with railroads, with energy, gas and oil networks that are aimed at connecting, essentially, North Asia and the North China Sea.
The TCTC or Middle Corridor is part of this global project. It links China to Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and Southeast Europe. This multimodal transport route (sea, rail and road) is designed to facilitate the transportation of goods between Asia and Europe, bypassing Russia. It is faster than the maritime route through the Suez Canal – 12-15 days versus 30-40. It is also politically safer, as it bypasses Russia and sensitive straits.
This redistribution of trade flows strengthens Central Asia’s geoeconomic role, allowing it to transform itself from a mere transit zone into a structuring player in multipolar globalization. As I mentioned earlier, the Trans-Caspian Corridor is part of China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative. China is investing in this corridor to secure and diversify its trade routes to Europe in addition to other land and sea routes.
– How can Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan benefit from the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor?
Murat Seitnepesov: The Middle Corridor, is an initiative of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. It is a wonderful initiative, which the government of Kazakhstan is actively promoting. At the same time, the development of this corridor does not imply active involvement of logistics infrastructure of neighbouring Central Asian countries. There is a parallel development of transport corridors involving the logistics infrastructure of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. So, I would call them Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridors. And they are extremely important because it provides another opportunity to move cargo from east to west, from west to east. In fact, this is the ancient Silk Road. It was happening 2,500 years ago; it’s still happening now. This is the development of the infrastructure of the corridor that has existed since ancient times.
Why is this important for Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan? Uzbekistan is the only country in the world that is landlocked twice. This means that you have to cross the borders of at least two countries to get to the sea. The second such country is Liechtenstein, but it is economically interconnected with Switzerland. The country has significant export potential. Kazakhstan is the largest exporter of oil, gas, metals and minerals and agricultural products from Central Asia. Therefore, it is crucial for Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to diversify export routes for trade in agricultural and chemical products, but most importantly, hydrocarbons. TCTC brings them a really unique opportunity and security.
– Could you tell us about Helvetistan, what is it?
Murat Seitnepesov: Central Asian countries are not sufficiently positioned internationally. Switzerland, being a neutral country, offered to represent the interests of Central Asian countries in international organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank, etc. Switzerland consolidated the voices of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, calling the project Helvetistan. This initiative created a unique niche for Switzerland as a consolidator of interests and voices at the international level. Switzerland has also provided substantial assistance to these countries in their reform processes and the development of market economies. In exchange, the confederation gained a reputation as a reliable partner for these countries, which provided unique opportunities for Swiss business in Central Asia.
Future scenario for Central Asia
– What role will Central Asia play in the future?
Hicheme Lehmici: Central Asian countries are now becoming a hub of connectivity along new routes: railroad corridors, pipelines, digital cables. Chinese, Russian, Turkish, European, Iranian and Indian ambitions are intersecting here again, as they once did in the past, but in a modern way.
If Central Asian states strengthen their sovereignty, develop independent diplomacy and integrate into Eurasian flows, the region could once again become the strategic “heart” of a multipolar world. Today, it is the screen on which the world order is changing.