Autore: Giuseppe Gagliano – 11/12/2024
“A Strategic Alliance Between Italy, France, and Germany: The Key to European Geopolitical Autonomy”
Abstract – A strategic alliance between Italy, France, and Germany could redefine Europe’s geopolitical role by promoting a model of strategic autonomy capable of reducing NATO and U.S. influence. France, Italy, and Germany, with their strategic, economic, and geographical strengths, provide the foundation for an ambitious project that includes dialogue with Russia and China. This collaboration could enhance energy security, technological innovation, and a common European defense, reducing dependence on the United States and positioning Europe as an autonomous actor in a multipolar world.
A strategic alliance between Italy, France, and Germany could represent a turning point for the future of Europe amidst a geopolitical landscape marked by rising tensions and competition among great powers. This trilateral collaboration has the potential to reduce NATO and U.S. influence on the continent, fostering a model of strategic autonomy capable of safeguarding European interests. France, with its tradition of strategic independence and its role as a nuclear power, serves as a cornerstone for a European autonomy project. Meanwhile, Italy, with its geostrategic position in the Mediterranean, could act as a bridge between Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Germany, as the economic and industrial heart of the European Union, would be the driving force behind such an ambitious initiative.
Russia and China represent crucial variables that this alliance should consider not only as challenges but also as opportunities to promote a more balanced and pragmatic European foreign policy. The narrative promoted by the U.S. and NATO has so far painted these powers solely as threats, but a more mature and strategic approach could reveal opportunities for beneficial cooperation. Despite the tensions related to the conflict in Ukraine, Russia remains an essential partner for Europe’s energy security and a key player in geopolitical stability on the continent. Engaging in dialogue with Moscow would not only help de-escalate tensions on the eastern borders but also open new avenues for economic and technological integration, vital to counter Europe’s industrial decline. Similarly, China offers unprecedented opportunities in infrastructure investment and technological innovation. Italy, already involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, and Germany, with its strong commercial ties to Beijing, could collaborate with France to develop a coordinated strategy that attracts Chinese investments in critical infrastructure projects and reduces Europe’s dependence on American technology.
In this scenario, Germany’s role would be central in mediating between Italy’s and France’s differing positions, crafting a cohesive approach toward Russia and China. With its historical capacity for dialogue with Moscow and economic pragmatism, Berlin could act as a bridge between East and West, promoting diplomatic solutions that minimize tensions and maximize benefits for Europe. Germany could also spearhead a joint effort to develop an autonomous European defense industry, reducing dependence on U.S. military supplies and creating a new power balance that fosters technological innovation and job creation.
The downsizing of NATO’s hegemony would be a key element of this alliance. The current security model, centered on subordination to American interests, has left Europe vulnerable and fragmented. An Italo-Franco-German project could advocate for a new European security architecture based on common defense and multilateral dialogue. This approach would not only strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy but also allow for the reallocation of resources from U.S.-driven military expenditures to economic and technological development projects.
The benefits of such an alliance would be manifold. Italy could consolidate its often-underestimated international role, becoming a key partner in a new European geopolitical architecture. France could reaffirm its status as Europe’s political and strategic leader, balancing the influence of both the U.S. and Germany. Finally, Germany would gain a stable framework to continue expanding its economy and strengthening commercial ties with major global players while ensuring the continent’s energy and political security.
This trilateral alliance could mark a fundamental shift in redefining Europe’s role in the world, transitioning from Atlantic subordination to autonomous leadership. Adopting a pragmatic and constructive approach toward Russia and China would not mean ignoring the challenges posed by these actors but recognizing that a fragmented and subordinate Europe cannot compete in an increasingly multipolar world. To realize this vision, European political elites must embrace a paradigm shift, moving away from automatic alignment with American interests toward a long-term strategy that leverages the continent’s resources and potential. Through an axis between Italy, France, and Germany, Europe could finally emerge as a geopolitical actor capable of ensuring its security and prosperity in a rapidly evolving global order.
Giuseppe Gagliano – In 2011 he founded the international network Cestudec (Centro studi strategici Carlo de Cristoforis) based in Como, with the aim of studying the conflictual dynamics of international relations from a realistic perspective, placing emphasis on the dimension of intelligence and geopolitics in the light of the reflections of Christian Harbulot, founder and director of the School of Economic Warfare (EGE). Gagliano has published four essays in French on economic warfare and ten essays in Italian on geopolitics