Author: Ecaterina Cojuhari – 11/10/2024
Apero Geopolitique – Africa: the Great Awakening?
Oil, gas, rare minerals, agricultural land, and renewable energies are strategic assets that position Africa at the heart of the global challenges of the 21st century. At the same time, Africa remains one of Earth’s most conflicted, troubled, and poor continent. What are the main conflicts and wars and the main risks for Africa and Europe today? How do African countries navigate between competing powers like the USA, the EU, China, Russia, and Gulf countries, especially in terms of foreign investment, trade, and military aid? Do they benefit from these relationships or are they exploited?
These questions were discussed on the Apero Geopolitique independent platform with Richard Mukundji – Doctor of Economics, Administrator of the Chamber of Commerce Switzerland – Democratic Republic of Congo and geopolitical analyst Hicheme Lehmici. The conference – moderated by Ecaterina Cojuhari, occurred on September 27 in Chateau d’Aïre in Geneva in partnership with the Swiss UMEF University of Applied Science Institute.
Risks for Africa and Europe
-What are the main conflicts in Africa, and what are the main risks for the continent and Europe?
Hicheme Lehmici: Africa is a continent experiencing rapid demographic growth. With a population of over 1.4 billion in 2023, it could reach 2.5 billion by 2050. This demographic explosion, with more than 60% of Africans under the age of 25, presents both an opportunity for economic dynamism and a challenge in terms of stability and resource management. However, these young people face armed conflicts, humanitarian crises, and growing security issues, creating an unstable environment not only for Africa but also for Europe. Conflicts in Africa, fueled by ethnic, political, and religious tensions, have a major impact on European security and migration policies. Briefly about the main conflicts in Africa today:
Sudan: since April 2023, Sudan has been immersed in a violent conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The conflict, which has killed thousands of people and displaced more than 6 million, threatens to split the country into warring factions. The fighting is particularly concentrated in Khartoum and Darfur, where the humanitarian situation is catastrophic.
Sahel: The Sahel faces a growing jihadist insurgency, mainly by groups affiliated with al-Qaida and the Islamic State. Recent military takeovers in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have exacerbated instability, making it difficult to combat these groups. The collapse of security agreements with Western partners such as France has left a significant security vacuum.
DRC: In the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), armed groups such as M23 continue to sow terror. This rebel group, backed by regional interests, clashes with government forces in the North Kivu and Ituri regions, where ethnic tensions and control over mining resources exacerbate the violence. The UN mission (MONUSCO) is also present in these areas but has struggled to contain escalation.
Libya: Since the fall of Gadhafi in 2011, Libya remains a fractured country with several militias and competing governments vying for power. The National Union Government (NUG) in the west and Khalifa Haftar’s forces in the east are the main players, but numerous armed groups and local militias maintain instability. The conflict has made Libya a point of departure for thousands of migrants seeking to reach Europe, exacerbating the migration crisis.
Risks for Africa and Europe are in a migration crisis: conflicts in Libya, the Sahel and DRC are causing mass migration to Europe. Libya has become a center for human trafficking networks, which contributes to the strain on European asylum systems, especially in Italy.
The second risk is in terrorism: The Sahel is fertile ground for jihadist terrorist groups whose activities extend beyond Africa. These groups, which proliferate as a result of regional instability, pose a direct threat to Europe, both through dormant terrorist cells and online radicalization movements.
The third risk is in energy security: The stability of oil and gas-producing countries in Africa, such as Libya and Nigeria, is critical to Europe’s energy supply. Any disruption, such as renewed fighting in Libya, could lead to higher energy prices and have economic repercussions for Europe.
In conclusion, Africa, rich in human and natural resources, faces serious challenges that threaten its stability and in Europe. Resolving African crises, be it armed conflicts or migration flows, requires increased cooperation between the two continents to promote peace and security.
-There is a possibility that because Africa is now attracting a lot of attention from the big players with their different strategies, many African countries may get “lost” in this big “menu” and corruption will grow instead of prosperity. How do African countries navigate between competing powers, especially in terms of foreign investment, trade and military aid? Do they benefit from these relationships or are they exploited?
Richard Mukunji: It is risky to answer this question positively or negatively. We note that African countries are confronted with big players and their strategies. These are mainly the US, China, Russia, and the EU, which have different strategies. The US, for example, promotes unilateral trade preferences through the AGOA (Economic Partnership Agreement) mechanism for duty-free trade with the US market, as well as strategic partnership on military issues. On the other hand, China is establishing privileged partnerships with African countries that supply strategic minerals (copper, cobalt, lithium, rare earths) for the energy transition. As for the European Union, it is difficult for it to present a united front in the face of the positions taken by leading countries such as Germany and France. Other developing countries such as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar are capitalizing on business opportunities in Africa.
The anticipated benefits are likely to be seen in the long term, especially in key sectors such as infrastructure. Foreign direct investment (FDI) underpins globalization and is the main vector for the movement of capital, goods, services, and information between economies. In 2023, global FDI declined by 2% to $1,300 billion. In Africa, the figure fell by 3%. Tighter financing conditions in 2023 led to a quarter reduction in the number of international project finance deals needed for infrastructure and utilities such as electricity and renewable energy. This led to a 10% reduction in investments in sectors related to the Sustainable Development Goals, such as agri-food systems, water and sanitation.
New geopolitical landscape
-African countries have vast natural resource endowments that are critical for the “green transition” and information technology development. The US and the EU on one side and the BRICS countries on the other are clashing over access to these resources. How is the geopolitical landscape in Africa changing? What is the role of China and Russia in it, how is their influence growing, and what are the consequences?
Hicheme Lehmici: Africa’s geopolitical landscape is changing rapidly, driven by growing global demand for the continent’s natural and energy resources. The United States and the European Union, eager to secure their sources of supply for the energy transition, are in direct competition with the BRICS, particularly China and Russia, which are consolidating their influence through investments and strategic partnerships. This competition may offer new opportunities for African countries, but it also raises questions about the sustainable management of resources and the continent’s economic sovereignty.
China in Africa: the dominant economic player. It has been Africa’s main trading partner for several years now. In 2021, the trade volume between China and Africa was about $254 billion, making China the continent’s largest trading partner.
China’s strategy focuses on three main areas. Infrastructure investment: as part of its New Silk Road initiative, China is investing heavily in African infrastructure. It is funding the construction of roads, railroads, ports and airports in countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia and Angola. For example, the railroad between Mombasa and Nairobi in Kenya, built by a Chinese company, is a prime example of this strategy. These infrastructures are necessary to provide access to natural resources and facilitate their export to China.
The second area is access to mining and energy resources: China has entered into key partnerships to develop natural resources. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, it controls much of the production of cobalt, which is needed for electric vehicle batteries. It also invests in copper, iron, and oil, particularly in Angola.
The third area is economic diplomacy and financial loans: China stands out for its “win-win” approach, where it offers low-interest loans and financing in exchange for strategic partnerships. However, this strategy has led some African countries into huge debts to China, creating tensions over the economic sovereignty of these countries. The infrastructure built by China is often financed by loans, and the inability of some countries to repay these debts leaves them vulnerable to a form of economic dependency.
Russia in Africa: a military and economic player. Although Russia has a smaller economic presence than China, it has significantly increased its influence in Africa in recent years, especially in the military and security spheres. Russia has signed military agreements with several African countries, particularly in Central Africa, Mali, and Sudan. The Russian paramilitary group Wagner has played a key role in providing security to some regimes in exchange for mining concessions. For example, in the Central African Republic, Wagner helped protect the government by securing resources such as gold and diamonds. These agreements strengthen Russia’s position in countries in need of stability and military support.
Russia is also seeking to establish itself as a key partner in the African energy sector, particularly through the construction of nuclear power plants. For example, the Russian state-owned company Rosatom has signed agreements to develop nuclear infrastructure in Egypt and South Africa. This allows Russia to secure a long-term strategic partnership in the energy sector.
Like China, Russia is interested in African mineral resources. Its approach is based on a direct exchange between military support and mining concessions. In the Central African Republic, Sudan and Mali, resources such as gold, manganese and diamonds are being exploited by Russian companies – often in exchange for stabilizing the regimes there.
The rivalry between China, Russia, and Western powers (the United States and the European Union) is creating geopolitical polarization in Africa. The United States and the European Union: these powers seek access to Africa’s strategic resources, especially as part of the energy transition. The United States and the European Union fund sustainable development initiatives, such as renewable energy projects, but are often perceived as less “pragmatic” than China and Russia, whose approach focuses on direct resource exchange and military support.
Critical materials for the green transition (cobalt, lithium, rare earths) put Africa at the center of the rivalry. China, already well positioned, is consolidating its control over supply chains, while Russia is taking a more military-economic approach. Western powers, in turn, seek to diversify their sources of supply to reduce dependence on China, while investing in green technologies in Africa.
Attracting Chinese and Russian investment creates increasing dependence for African countries, particularly through massive loans and security agreements. While this allows for rapid infrastructure development, there is a risk that these countries will lose control of their resources or their sovereignty will be jeopardized.
The rivalry between China, Russia and Western powers for control of Africa’s resources is changing the continent’s geopolitical landscape. China, with its massive investments in infrastructure and resource exploitation, and Russia, with its military-economic agreements, are consolidating their influence in Africa. This phenomenon presents African countries with both development opportunities and challenges in terms of sovereignty and sustainable resource management. Africa’s future in this context will depend on its ability to diversify partnerships and protect its national interests in an increasingly competitive world.
Africa’s multipolarity
-How do African countries deal with development, poverty and external debt, especially in light of post-colonial economic struggles? How do you assess the current situation and what are the prospects for development in the coming decades?
Richard Mukunji: Africa’s post-colonial economic difficulties are structural. African countries have gained political independence, but not economic independence. Most African economies have so far been extroverted and based on unprocessed raw materials (agricultural and mining) destined for the advanced industrialized countries. This economic architecture persists to this day. Africa is the only continent with a large number of so-called least developed countries, there are 33 of them. The current situation is not the same in all African countries. Some of the driver countries are undergoing major reforms to diversify their economies, but the problems are still great due to the lack of peace and political stability (Sahel states, Great Lakes, South Sudan). The effects of external wars are also affecting African countries in the form of higher prices for energy, raw materials, and some consumer goods (wheat).
To overcome these difficulties, most African countries need to win their economic independence, which is not far off and the current situation is favorable. This will require active, diversified policies that can lead to a significant transformation of productive structures and industrialization potential. Despite the economic growth seen in most African countries, this growth is not inclusive and does not create the jobs that could lift the majority of Africans out of poverty.
There are many challenges, not least of which is the informal economy, which is not taxed and does not contribute to national wealth creation. Together with their trading partners, African countries should prioritize interventions with long-term impact, broader investment as a vector of change, and genuine dialogue with the private sector. African Governments should encourage investment in infrastructure, remove the perception of risk, and improve financial management to increase public revenues and ensure effective public participation in the industrialization of their countries.
I would also like to note the positive dynamics in some African countries. Despite geopolitical challenges, some African countries are showing impressive growth rates. For example, Ethiopia, Ghana and Ivory Coast are often cited as models of economic growth. Also, several countries are undertaking initiatives to diversify their economies, such as the development of technology, manufacturing, and the agricultural sector. More and more African countries such as Kenya and Nigeria are turning to new technologies and entrepreneurship to solve their economic problems. The emergence of fintech companies (particularly M-Pesa) and technology hubs is a positive sign for the future of the continent.
– Is Africa awakening?
Hicheme Lehmici: Africa has the biggest potential for growth in the world today. Here are some statistics: China – Total foreign direct investment (FDI): over 72 billion dollars (2021). It is also a leading trading partner, with bilateral trade worth more than $200 billion (Source: McKinsey). India – FDI about 70 billion dollars. India has a strong presence in pharmaceuticals and telecom and initiatives such as the African Growth Corridor. United Arab Emirates – nearly $60 billion in FDI. It is a major player in port and logistics infrastructure, with strategic investments in North and East Africa. United States – FDI volume of about 50 billion dollars. Investment is concentrated in energy and telecommunications, with initiatives such as Prosper Africa. France – FDI volume of about 65 billion dollars. Historical presence in Francophone Africa with businesses such as TotalEnergies and Orange. European Union – over 290 billion dollars in FDI is the main investment partner in Africa. the EU maintains its dominant influence, including in North Africa, etc.
Africa’s multipolarity is confirmed by the fact that China, India, and the Gulf countries, represent great growth prospects. The US and France retain important positions, but African states are increasingly pushing them aside. The EU, as a bloc, remains the largest investor, but its influence is waning by the BRICS and Gulf Stream countries.
