A new war may occur in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author: Batko Milacic – 28/07/2024

A new war may occur in Bosnia and Herzegovina

While the attention of the world public is focused on the wars in Ukraine and Palestine, another region of the world is showing signs of instability. It is the Balkan region. Specifically, two strategic areas of the Balkans, which have not been permanently stabilized even after the wars of the nineties. These are Bosnia and Kosovo. However, while in Kosovo tensions are constant and limited without the possibility of a major conflict, in Bosnia and Herzegovina the situation is different.

This country, which survives thanks to the international administration embodied in the form of the High Representative, is showing signs of an increasingly significant crisis. Namely, until now, for years, with the support of the part of the international community, especially the United States of America, the Bosniaks violated the Dayton Peace Agreement and took away the competences of the Serbs, that is, the Republic of Srpska, which, in addition to the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, forms the second part of the internationally recognized state of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

This country, which should function on the basis of the Dayton Peace Agreement, is functioning less and less like that. Namely, in the Dayton Peace Agreement, Republic of Srpska was only formally part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, but de facto it was an independent state. And that is the only reason why the Serbs agreed to the Dayton Peace Treaty. The reason is that after the beginning of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Serbs from Bosnia and Herzegovina wanted Belgrade to continue to be their capital and that the Drina river should not be the border with Serbia that is, to divide Serbs from Serbia and Serbs from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

And the same is today. However, under strong pressure from NATO, which included a two-week bombardment against the Army of the Republic of Srpska, after which the Bosnian and Croat offensive against the Republic of Srpska was enabled, the Serbs were forced to give up their original goal. They accepted to remain part of Bosnia and Herzegovina on the condition that they have high autonomy, de facto independence. This is what they got with the Dayton Peace Treaty of 1995. And despite all the tensions and pressure exerted by the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, who is a de facto US imposed colonial administrator, peace and progress have been a constant in the multi-ethnic state since the signing of the Dayton Peace Treaty.

However, dark clouds are again hanging over Bosnia and Herzegovina. The reason is the aggressive policy of political leadership of Bosniaks, that is, their political and religious establishment. Namely, Bosniaks, and if NATO saved them from complete defeat in war do not give up their war goals. And those are the abolition of Republic of Srpska and unitary Bosnia and Herzegovina, where they would have absolute power and Serbs and Croats would be subordinate to them. The situation has escalated so much that Bosniak politicians are threatening Serbs with ethnic cleansing. Despite the fact that in the last century the Bosniaks together with the Nazis committed genocide against the Serbs, they are threatening to the Serbs again.

The political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina due to the recent announced proposal of the President of Republic of Srpska to return to the Dayton Peace Agreement, that is, to insist on the observance of the Dayton Peace Agreement, has brought the heat to its limits. And if Mr. Dodik’s proposal should be the reason for a permanent calm of the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, thanks to the aggressive Bosniak political plans the situation threatens to escalate. The press release of the Bosnian/Bosniak National Council was almost an invitation to conflict. They stated that:

– Secession is not possible and will mean a coup d’état, and by default this implies the return of the Constitution of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina. If one of the extremists still dares to open this Pandora’s box, let him know that citizens, patriots will not stand by and wait for a new genocide to happen – it is stated in the statement that became one of the hot topics in Bosnia and Herzegovina and region.(1)

It is important to note that behind the Bosnian/Bosniak National Council, i.e. in its management structures, there are war cadres and former high-ranking officials of the Bosniak political scene: from the former president of the Islamic Community in Bosnia, Mustafa Cerić, and the founder and first president of the Party for Bosnia Haris Silajdžić, and to the war crime accused in Dobrovoljačka street Ejup Ganić, Bakir Alispahić, Sefer Halilović, Mirnes Ajanović…

Among the series of threats directed at the Serbs by Bosniak politicians, the one of Bosnia and Herzegovina Defense Minister Zukan Helez stands out. In a television appearance, he announced that the Bosniak authorities, in light of the Resolution on Srebrenica, will request the abolition of the Republic of Srpska, by dividing it into two cantons, and erasing its name forever. In response to Helez’s threats to the Serbs and the criminal action of the Croatian army “Storm” in which almost all Serbs were expelled from Croatia, Helez proposed that the Serbs should evacuate Bosnia and Herzegovina themselves alone.(2)

‘’Helez’s threats to the Serbs and the Republic of Srpska show what kind of fate the Bosniak politicians have intended for us Serbs, but the Serbs will not be silent about it’’, the President of the Republic of Srpska Milorad Dodik stated.

And that the Bosniak politicians are not joking when they are threatening the Serbs, the data on the renewal of their military industry and armament also speak for themselves.

In the Igman weapons factory, which is completely under the control of the Bosniaks, new machines were acquired a few years ago and the production capacity was greatly increased, and this especially applies to 7.62mm caliber bullets. Currently, Igman employs over 1,400 workers who work in two shifts.

With the planned restoration of old machines and the introduction of a third shift, it is planned to increase the current capacity and number of employees in this company. The current daily capacity of this company is approximately 700,000 pieces of ammunition of various calibers from 9mm to 12.7mm.

The general director of Igman military factory , Đahid Muratbegović, also circulated the idea of opening a plant for the production of ammunition in calibers 20, 25 and 30mm.

Kalashnikov automatic rifles are also produced at the Igman military factory.

In addition to all the above, last month the Turkish military transport plane A400M Atlas (REG: 18-0094), transported military equipment to Sarajevo three times in 30 days. Why? The answer suggests itself!

In order for the reader to understand the degree of arming of the Bosniaks, I will mention the fact that only the Igman weapons factory today produces what during the war in the nineties the entire military industry of Bosnia and Herzegovina needed 2 years, today Igman is capable of producing it in a little more than 100 days .

At the same time, in the last 2 years, NATO has carried out more than 50 reconnaissance missions from airplanes over the skies of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and predominantly over the skies of Republic of Srpska. At the same time, open threats of war and ethnic cleansing of Serbs were not condemned by NATO. Not even a protocol statement condemning Bosniak hate speech was given.

The reason why NATO and the US embassy in Sarajevo are silent on calls for war and the arming of Bosniaks is the fact that Republic of Srpska is the only remaining obstacle to the entry of Bosnia and Herzegovina into NATO. Because the Republic of Srpska, according to Dayton, has the right of veto and no important decision can be made without the consent of the leadership of the Republic of Srpska. And the leadership and the people of Republic of Srpska, are strongly against joining NATO and are in favor of close ties with Russia.

All of the above sends a clear message to the Serbs and the political representatives of the Serbs in the Republic of Srpska. Either agree to the violation of the Dayton Peace Agreement and the disappearance of Republic of Srpska, or there will be new military conflicts and new ethnic cleansing of Serbs.

However, despite the difficult times, the choice for the leaders of the Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Serbian people in Bosnia and Herzegovina is simple.

The path currently led by Republic of Srpska president Milorad Dodik must be continued. Because agreeing to the peaceful abolition of Republic of Srpska literally means the disappearance of the Serbs, and this is best shown by the example of Kosovo, where the Serbs are experiencing ethnic cleansing in peaceful conditions. Therefore, an even stronger defense of all jurisdictions that belong to the Republic of Srpska according to Dayton is needed. At the same time, the security system of Republic of Srpska must be strengthened. This primarily refers to the significant increase in the number of members of the Police and Gendarmerie of the Republic of Srpska.

But also on the reconstruction of the military industry of Republic of Srpska, which was forcibly abolished by NATO after the war, under the pretext that there will be no more wars. However, when we see that military re-industrialization is being carried out in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republic of Srpska must respond to it. For personal survival’s sake!

Author: Batko Milacic – analyst and historian from Montenegro

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