Author: Fabrizio Vielmini – 05/09/2023
Following the Saint Petersburg and the African Forums earlier this year, Russian public diplomacy is preparing another high-level international event, the 8th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF). On 10-13 September, the capital of Russian Far East region, Vladivostok, will serve as a venue to discuss the most pressing issues of the country’s development and its interaction with the international community.
As a Easter correspondent of Saint Petersburg’s one, the Forum in Vladivostok allows Moscow to build on Russian bicontinental extension[1]. This is one of the three main public events where Russian President V. Putin takes personally part. The participation of the head of state implies that important statements will be made not only on the domestic but also on the foreign policy agenda.
The main theme of this 8th EEF is “Towards Cooperation, Peace and Prosperity”. According to the program,[2] there will be sessions according to 6 thematic blocks, among which it stands out the one on “International cooperation in a changed world”. In the current conditions of ongoing war, the overall thrust of the event is to stimulate international cooperation around Russia, assisting in the national economy’s re-orientation away from Western markets. The main foreign participants of the EEF are business and political representatives from South, East and Southeast Asia. At the same time, representative delegations are expected from a number of other countries of the post-Soviet space, which are interested in developing industrial cooperation with enterprises of the Russian Far East. To be noted that the Republic of Kazakhstan will send a whole delegation, an important move in this moment when Russian-Kazakhstani relations are enduring a serious stress because of the Western pressure on Astana to force the country into the anti-Russian sanction mechanism[3].
Most notably, at debate there will be the formation of an alternative international monetary and financial system so that further reducing the role and the functions of the US dollar as the main international mean of payments[4].
Now, in the second year of hostilities in eastern Ukraine, it is becoming more and more clear that Western attempts at economic, informational and ideological isolation of Russia largely have failed. Against this background, talks about the need to discuss a “truce” are increasingly heard in the American and European press. Accordingly, the EEF organizers’ plan to hold a Russia-Europe business dialogue is a sound initiative that may help in reversing the tide of relations and return to the discussion of the Greater Eurasian Partnership doctrine interrupted by militarisation of the Ukraine. At EEF-2022 edition, this was the content of the intervention of Mr. Tadzio Schilling, Director General of the Association of European Businesses (AEB). The perspectives of such a truce are unfortunately still uncertain, but similar acts of public diplomacy acts as proposal to the Europeans to reduce the intensity of emotions and attempts to “cancel Russia” and return to cooperation on a more pragmatic basis.
Last August, speaking at the Council on Economic Affairs, President Vladimir Putin said that by the end of 2022, Russia had entered the top five leading economies in the world, overtaking Germany in a number of parameters. It is difficult to judge how correct are such economic evaluations, but it is safe to say that things are moving towards such a picture because of the objective economic decrease of a number of countries of the European Union. As observed by Thomas Fazi, as a result of the unwitty following of the US policies towards Ukraine, resulting in the ongoing proxy war, Europe’s largest actor and economy, Germany, is undergoing a process of economic decline and deindustrialization, with a third of German medium-sized firms considering a transfer of their productions (and jobs) abroad. “The dire state of the German economy is a harbinger of economic doom for the Continent as a whole”, considers Fazi, since most of European economies are integrated into the German supply chain[5]. On the other hand, the industrial growth pushed by the war and the active development of the trade with Asian and Middle Eastern countries are pushing up the Russian economy. Both processes are the result of Atlantic attempts to “disconnect” Russia from the world economy, which prompted Moscow to make a “pivot to the East” (to be precise, to the South towards India and Turkey and to the East towards China).
The importance of the EEF for Moscow stands in its role of venue for achievements in the economic relations of Russia with Middle East and Asian partners. Last year, more than 7,000 people from 68 countries took part in the event, including about 1,700 business representatives from 700 companies. A record for a similar event number of agreements (296 in total) on investment and business cooperation were signed at the 2022 Forum, worth a total amount of about $50 billion.
In this year EEF edition it is also worth to note a bloc of discussions which will be devoted to “Education and upbringing as the basis of independence”. This thematic points to the fact that the current Russian leadership is particularly concerned with the impact of the ongoing confrontation on the younger generations. To this regard, it will be of a particular interest to assist to one of the panels, called “A Global Alternative to Western Dominance: the Contours of the Future”. There will be a rare opportunity to see interact the well-known philosopher Alexander Dugin, Russian MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova, one of the principal theorists of Russian global geopolitics, Sergey Karaganov and other top Russian international affairs’ experts. At the core of their debate will be the crucial issue of the confrontation with the West in the perspective of values. Accordingly, the panelists will look for an answer to one of the most acute problems Russia has to face: the brain-drain of young specialists abandoning their country for the West. How can Russia build its model of state and society so that to stand up to the decaying values supported by Western states?
Last but not least, even if in this crucial phase of the confrontation between Russia and NATO in Ukraine, the EEF preserve its function of organisational platform for the development of the larger part of Russian continental vastness. In this perspective, one of the central events of the forum for the Far East will be the presentation by Presidential Plenipotentiary Yuri Trutnev of master plans for the renovation of cities in the Federal District to President Vladimir Putin.
At present, Vladivostok, especially during the Eastern Forum, acts as a “point of attraction” for all regions east of the Russian Urals (and geographically it is half of Russia). The city is more than 9000 from Moscow so that to reach here by train or car from the capital one should take at least 6 full days of travel. Observers note that two hundred years of existence at such a significant distance from the centre of the empire, in close proximity to the vibrant civilisations of Asia, formed a special mentality of the Russian people who developed these territories. They are more independent, enterprising, able to survive in difficult conditions, they are used to relying mainly on their own strengths.
During the Soviet period, the Far East and especially Primorye (Vladivostok region) became a springboard for Russian global naval power. After 20 years of decline, this vocation of the region has been revived, with special emphasis also being placed on the development of international trade through the port of Vladivostok. Overall, this year edition of the EEF will have a focus on the connectivity of the Far East. With overall Russian turn to the East, new transport services from Vladivostok to China, Vietnam, Taiwan and other countries in Southeast Asia have been launched. Their digitalization is rapidly underway, with the aim of reducing clearance time, developing new routes through the Far East, ship repair and shipbuilding services.
Thus, it can be assumed that the event, which will take place on 10-13 September 2023, will have a long-term impact on the further dynamics of Russia as well as the future economic agenda on the Eurasian continent.
[1] The Far East Economic Forum is organized by “Roscongress”, an association of the Russian Government which also sponsors other international forums, such as St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Official Forum website: https:// forumvostok.ru/en/
[2] https://forumvostok.ru/en/programme/business-programme/
[3] S. Blank, Trade and Geopolitics in and Around Kazakhstan, “Eurasia Daily Monitor”, 20 (117), 20.07.2023, https://jamestown.org/program/trade-and-geopolitics-in-and-around-kazakhstan/
[4] Na VEF-2023 obsudjat al’ternativu dollaru i master-plan Vladivostoka, RBK, 31.08.20232, https://prim.rbc.ru/prim/freenews/64eff8379a79479cbd542392
[5] T. Fazi, America Is Deindustrializing Europe, “Compact”, 09.08.2023, https://compactmag.com/article/america-is-deindustrializing-europe