Author: Ian Lisnevschi – 18/04/2025
Pre-election political “fight” in Moldova in current geopolitical context – Strategy over ideology: when architecture matters more than candidates
Ian Lisnevschi – April 18, 2025
“In politics, it’s not those who make mistakes that usually lose — it’s those who miscalculate the calendar.”
When power fears time
At the beginning of 2025, the PAS party, who has majority in Moldovan parliament, was preparing a textbook blitzkrieg. Parliamentary elections, scheduled for July this year, were designed to unfold against the backdrop of summer apathy, a weak opposition, an energized diaspora, and full administrative mobilization. Tactically, the plan was flawless: whoever masters passivity wins effortlessly.
But a victory without real competitors always raises suspicions — especially in the eyes of those financing the game. For them, a premature triumph may not be a success, but a strategic miscalculation with long-term consequences. Washington, Brussels, and London realized this faster than Moldova’s Central Electoral Commission. PAS didn’t fail — the architecture did. The external configuration shifted more quickly than the internal team could adapt.
Geopolitical calibration replaces political programs
Modern elections are no longer about competing agendas. They are contests between architectures — geopolitical ones. The July plan didn’t collapse because PAS was weak, but because the regional setup changed. In Romania, nationalism and sovereigntism are on the rise. George Simion is a frontrunner in the presidential race. His model? Conservative sovereignty with a strategic alignment toward the U.S. and Trump’s administration. PAS, on the other hand, is in open conflict with him — denied entry, public hostility, incompatible trajectories.
In Ukraine, preparations for negotiations are underway. What’s needed there is a flexible partner — not one cemented in “ideological plaster.” In this context, it no longer matters who is “pro-European.” What matters is who can negotiate with different Europeans.
The U.S. and EU never bet on emotional players. They’ve used them — but they invest in those who can solve problems and deliver geopolitical dividends. PAS, unfortunately, no longer fits that role.
A new model of manageability
While Moldova’s leadership clings to rhetoric, Western actors study spreadsheets — not slogans, but forecasts. Not volume, but calculations. Washington doesn’t believe in words. It believes in numbers. And in those numbers, PAS is no longer an asset — but a variable. Too predictable. Too emotional. Too dependent on domestic chaos.
This is why political circles in Europe and the U.S. have begun reading between the lines of others. Alternatives. Those who are labeled “pro-Russian” here are seen as “communicative” over there. Because even the most “pro-Russian” parties in Moldova are now part of the Western game — just with a different accent and vocabulary.
Control without a Future: why weptember is more than an election
Postponed elections to September are not a delay — they are a stress test. When a government stops shaping the agenda, it starts defending the structure. And defense is always more costly than offense. That’s why PAS is likely to rely on: targeted legislative tweaks, disguised as reforms; administrative noise: mayors, budgets, staged scandals; media purges: anyone interesting to the West will be mocked and accused of “collaborating with the enemy.”
But geopolitics doesn’t play emotional games. It supports those who are useful — not those who are loyal. Utility trumps loyalty. And if PAS can no longer deliver utility, it will be replaced. Not by revolution. By strategy. September 2025 is not just a date. It is a crossroads between domestic instinct and external demand.
The task for alternatives
Emerging political figures must understand that power lies not in confrontation, but in manageability. One shouldn’t simply fight “the regime,” but become the answer to both the geopolitical equation and internal social need. And most importantly — they must show Washington, London, and Brussels how Moldova’s interests can work for them. Otherwise, Moldovan politics becomes nothing more than a sandbox for testing foreign agendas.
P.S. A government that fears time isn’t afraid of the calendar. It fears a future in which it’s no longer read between the lines. And it is in those very lines that the real scenario for Moldova’s 2025 elections is now being written.